BOTU 2017 Conference Announcement

Singular Research 12th Annual “Best of the Uncovered” Conference

December 4, 2017 at the Hotel Angeleno
Los Angeles, CA

 

“The only performance-based conference in the small and micro-cap space – 

supported by unbiased research since 2004.”

 

Singular Research is pleased to announce its 12th Annual “Best of the Uncovereds” Conference in Bel Air, CA.

Approximately 20 high-quality companies, representing the most compelling and timely ideas in small and micro caps today,

will be presenting. Top portfolio managers and analysts will be in attendance for quality 1v1s.

Hotel Angeleno

170 North Church Lane
Los Angeles, California 90049
click for Reservations

 

REGISTRATION:

Please fill out the following Registration Form. 1-1 meeting requests included. Comments or questions are welcome.

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Action Calls: Petmed Express Inc. (PETS) v2

Top Small Cap Growth/ momentum Play (Growth BUY rated: multi-factor Quant “Smart” Screen)

Buy: Petmed Express Inc. (PETS)

Recent price: $43.41

Model projected value:  $47*

 

Petmed Express Inc. (PETS) recent price $43.41: PetMed Express, Inc. (PetMed Express), doing business as 1800PetMeds, is a pet pharmacy. The Company markets prescription and non-prescription pet medications, and other health products for dogs and cats, direct to the consumer. It offers a selection of products for dogs and cats. Its product line contains approximately 3,000 stock keeping units (SKUS) of pet medications, health products and supplies. Its products include brands of medication, such as Frontline Plus, K9 Advantix II, Advantage II, Heartgard Plus, Sentinel, Revolution and Rimadyl. It also offers additional pet supplies for sale on its Website, which are drop shipped to its customers by third parties. These pet supplies include food, beds, crates, stairs, strollers and other pet supplies. Its products included Non-Prescription Medications (Over the Counter (OTC)) and supplies, and Prescription Medications (Rx). Its customers are located in California, Florida, Texas, New York, Virginia and Georgia, among others.

PETS has a recent history of beating earnings estimates, followed by favorable price momentum

 

PETS analysts raised eps estimates again. PETS has a very high analysts revision factor score.

ANALYST REVISIONS

This Quarter (FQ Sep-17)                 This Year (FY Mar-18)                       Next Year (FY Mar-19)

Measure Component Percentile                       Blended Mean Change      Predicted

Surprise                Blended Mean Change               Predicted

Surprise                Blended Mean Change               Predicted

Surprise

Revenue              59                         -0.4%     0.6%                             0.2%      0.3%                    0.5%               0.7%

EBITDA 88                         3.0%      1.6%                     2.3%      0.7%                    2.0%      1.8%

EPS       88                         1.8%      3.1%                     2.0%      1.4%                    3.0%      2.2%

Mean Recommendation Change

Recommendations            92                         -0.40

 

PETS has above avg core fundamental margins:

PETS
(Mar-2017)
Growth Industry
Merchandise Margins 31.80% (0.70%) YoY
Gross Margin 35.15% 3.26% 4Q 54.05%
Operating Margin 18.56% 3.06% 4Q 3.02%
Net Margin 11.90% 2.12% 4Q 2.21%
Asset Turnover 0.60 (3.28%) 4Q 0.44
ROE 8.21% 1.61% 4Q 1.12%
Debt/Equity 0.00% 4Q 45.46

 

PETS is undervalued relative to its peer group

 

  PETS       peers
LTM 24-Oct-17 NTM
PE 33.44 25.66 37.87
EV/EBITDA 19.12 15.81 18.04
Div Yield 2.18% 1.97% 0.00%
EV/Sales 3.22 2.94 3.64
P/CF 18.64 18.03 29.67
P/B 9.00 8.51 5.23

 

Meanwhile, Short interest has grown to a very high level of over 31% of the float.

*Model valuation assumptions : 1.50 ttm eps, 5yr cagr 15%, 25xpe, 10% discount rate.

 

ABOUT Smart Screens

Smart Screens
Powered by Sabrient

Key Features

  1. Based on models that have long displayed excellent market-beating performance, in collaboration with Sabrient, our smart screens employ proven fundamentals-based multifactor quantitative models as the underlying engine for a variety of indexes, actionable idea lists, and model portfolios.
  2. We look “under the hood” at the quality and sustainability of reported earnings in order to help avoid companies at higher risk of performance-offsetting meltdowns due to earnings misses or restatements.
  3. Sabrient-powered Smart Screens utilize a proprietary Earnings Quality Rank (EQR), a pure accrual accounting risk assessment signal that can be used for fundamental screening or within quant models as both a screening and scoring factor.
  4. Sabrient’s quant methodology is somewhat unique among quant shops:
  • Rather than employing a lot of multiple regression, data mining, optimization, and curve fitting, they use a scientific hypothesis testing approach to build models that make sense.
  • Sabrient uses relevance scoring rather than filtering and sequential elimination.
  • Sabrient employs a strong forward-looking emphasis rather than just screening for historical trends. This relies upon sell-side earnings projections, including the consensus estimates as well as the internal dynamics of those estimates, i.e., the number of analysts revising up or down and the magnitude of those revisions.

 

Singular Staff

 

For more information call us at 818-222-6234 or email research@singularresearch.com

This report has been prepared by Singular Research, a wholly owned subsidiary of Millennium which is an investment advisor registered in the State of California. Singular Research receives fees from Millennium for the right to use and distribute research reports prepared by Singular Research. Millennium does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Singular Research’s research reports. Millennium may receive fees from issuers that are the subject of research reports prepared by Singular Research for investor and public relations and other marketing-related services provided to such issuers by Millennium. As a result, investors should be aware that Singular Research and Millennium may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Action Calls: Petmed Express Inc. (PETS)

Petmed Express Inc. (PETS) recent price $43.41:  PetMed Express, Inc. (PetMed Express), doing business as 1800PetMeds, is a pet pharmacy. The Company markets prescription and non-prescription pet medications, and other health products for dogs and cats, direct to the consumer.

REGISTER BELOW FOR TRIAL ACCESS TO COMPLETE ACTION CALLS REPORT

 

 

Interview with DAKT Management at Chicago Conference 9/20/17

  • Daktronics (DAKT)

Chicago Conference Video Interviews 9/20/17

Register to Access Singular Research Chicago Conference video interviews with Senior Managment from:

  • Bladex – Banco Latino (BLX)
  • Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc. (KLIC)
  • General Finance Corporation (GFN)
  • Emergent Biosolutions Inc (EBS)




Interview with EBS Management at Chicago Conference 9/20/17

Emergent Biosolutions Inc. (EBS)

Interview with GFN Management at Chicago Conference 9/20/17

  • General Finance Corporation (GFN)

Interview with KLIC Management at Chicago Conference 9/20/17

Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc. (KLIC)

Interview with BLX Senior Management at Chicago Conference 9/20/17

Bladex – Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S.A. (NYSE: BLX)

Singular Research Director’s Letter : September 2017

Small Caps Outperform

The small and micro-cap sectors of the equity markets have been on a tear since the mid-August lows. We perceive that is partly due to the YTD underperformance of the small and micro cap sectors, but a huge boost occurred in September which we anticipate has some long legs, its tax reform. Lower corporate taxes is beneficial to investors, but in the current environment when small caps have underperformed and considering the domestic focus of small and micro cap companies, it is no wonder that this group will be supported by any positive news on domestic tax reform. Our contrarian indicators support the continuation of the latest rally. Short selling is at its highest level since before the 2016 election, and individual bullishness is below average.

For the top performing companies in September on the Singular Research coverage list, most reported strong fundamental performance in Q2, along with positive outlooks. Arotech Corp. (ARTX) was the top performer in September. The company provides engineering and security solutions to government agencies, municipalities and commercial organizations. The company recently received a new contract from the Army National Guard. Harvard Biosciences (HBIO) makes scientific equipment and consumables that are used by researchers worldwide. The company is benefiting by growth in China, increased spending from the National Institute of Health (NIH). The company is benefiting from the expanding gene editing market. Century Casinos (CNTY) has casino operations in a diverse set of venues including cruise ships and horse racing. The company beat earnings estimates in Q2. Control4 Corp (CTRL) provides smart home and business solutions that integrate audio, video, lighting, temperature, security, and communications. The company was a recent new initiation and has consistently been beating estimates.  Biolase (BIOL) makes laser dental products that are very patient friendly and recently introduced two new products in Q1. Sales of new products are ramping up slowly and the is rebounding after recent underperformance.

The worst performing group of the Singular Research coverage list during September include several companies that reported lower than expected Q2 results. The worst performing stock of the coverage list was IntelGenx Technologies (IGTX) focuses on novel drug delivery systems. Although the company missed our analysts’ expectations for Q2, there are several promising items in the near term pipeline. The New Your Times (NYT) underperformed as a short. The company had a stronger than expected Q2. Vasco Data Security (VDSI) makes hardware and software security products. Revenues declined in Q2 as expected, but our analyst expects revenue growth to resume in Q3 driven by software and service-centric offerings. A-Mark Precious Metals (AMRK) is a full-service precious metals trading company. Q4 performance (June 2017) was below expectations but our analyst notes management’s focus on expanding the high margin revenue streams in logistics, storage, financing, and minting. Acme United (ACU) reported lower than expected revenue and EPS in Q2, but management cites a shift of Q2 revenue into the second half and maintained its earlier annual guidance.

We continue to work on new ideas in the small and micro cap space. At Singular Research, we continue to seek out investment ideas that have minimal to no Wall Street coverage. We thank our clients for your support of independent equity research.