Singular Research Director’s Letter : February 2017

A New Year Brings Consolidation

The post-election rally took a breather in January, and in the process the large cap stocks outperformed. Does this foretell what we can expect for the year? Will the January effect work again in 2017? We anticipate an up year for the equity markets in 2017, but we expect the nature of it will likely favor small cap names which is different from what occurred in January. After a strong Q4 performance it is normal for small cap names to trail during consolidation phases. We anticipate any fiscal stimulus from lower taxes or infrastructure building will support domestic companies which typically means small caps.

For the companies on the Singular Research coverage list, most of the top performing group in January have strong fundamental outlooks. NV 5 Global (NVEE) was the strongest performer in January after digesting earlier gains in December. NVEE provides technical engineering and consulting for infrastructure and construction markets. Our analyst expect a very strong 2017. Seabridge Gold (SA) released two very favorable reports critical to mineral development. Both the Preliminary Feasibility Study and a Preliminary Economics Assessment demonstrated improved project economics on its mining assets.  Supreme Industries (STS) manufactures specialty commercial vehicles has been performing well after the October low. Our analyst indicates the company is well positioned to outpace its industry. Stealthgass (GASS) provides seaborne transportation for LPG. GASS has responded from its lows and the company reported an uptick in contract rates for its vessels. There are very few industry builds coming online in the next two years which will likely lead to higher dayrates. Nova Measuring Instruments (NVMI) develops and markets process control metrology equipment used in the manufacture of high end integrated circuits. The company expects the strong demand from foundries to continue.

The worst performing group of the Singular coverage list during January have several hidden gems that we anticipate will perform well in the next year. The worst performing stock of the coverage list, Amyris (AMRS) was a new initiation for Singular in September, and the stock performed exceptionally well in September – October. The company has several products in the pipeline with favorable long-term implications and our analyst remains very bullish on AMRS. Century Casinos (CNTY) has been performing well in the last few months and our analyst forecasts strong EPS growth in 2017. Aceto (ACET) has been correcting for a few months, but our analyst perceives strong EPS growth in the next 18 months. Trecora Resources (TREC) performed poorly driven by weakness in the mining operations. Our analyst perceives strong operating fundamentals in the petroleum business. CTRP.com (CTRP) was down as a short. The stock has been in a trading range in the past year, and we expect the breakout out of this range to be to the downside.

We are currently working on several new ideas and plan to launch coverage in the coming weeks on one or several new names. At Singular Research, we continue to seek out investment ideas that have minimal to no Wall Street coverage. We thank our clients for your support of independent equity research.