The Great Rotation “Compelling Values” Webinar

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At Singular Research, we focus on small and micro-cap stocks that are undercovered on Wall Street. These stocks have a niche business model and have yet to be widely discovered. Many of the global threats in the stock market today do not affect these stocks. Currently, there has been a huge wave of positive momentum in mega cap technology growth stocks; however, as that momentum slows, we are seeing a shift back into small-cap value investments. As of August 31, large-cap growth and the Nasdaq have had year-to-date returns of 21.6 and 26.7% while large-cap value and the Russell 2000 have returned (11.4) and (6.0)% over that same time period. Similarly, as of the end of August, the S&P 500 has a forward P/E ratio of 22.6 while Russell 2000’s small-cap value stocks (IWN) and micro-cap stocks (IWC) have forward P/E ratios of 11.7 and 11.4, respectively. Given this wide disparity in returns and valuations between large-cap growth and small-cap value stocks, we believe now is the time to focus your attention on small-cap value stocks as we are starting to see a new strong rotation back into small-cap stocks.

Our small-cap investor webinar will focus on top ranked emerging growth, undervalued, and undercovered companies that exemplify our research and provide exciting alpha opportunities at a time when small and micro-cap stocks are most justified for favorable returns. Please see below for a list of invited and presenting companies and a brief description with valuation metrics, an investment thesis, and recent quarterly highlights on three of the companies that are presenting.

 

Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. (EBS)

$144.00 Price Target, Buy, Current Price: $104.21 (9/8/20)

 

Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) is a global specialty life sciences company that develops and commercializes vaccines, drugs, and devices that address biodefense threats. The Company is a preferred provider of biodefense products and services to the U.S. government under multi-year contracts. The firm’s most valuable product, BioThrax, is the only FDA-approved anthrax vaccine. The Company’s products are sold mainly in the U.S. as well as internationally.

 

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Q2:20 Highlights

  • Product sales improved 63% YOY to $298.5 million primarily due to increased sales of anthrax and smallpox vaccines. CDMO revenues grow 288% to $72.6 million as a result of new COVID-19 vaccine development and manufacturing contracts. Contract and grant revenues decline 42% to $23.6 million, reflecting development activities completed on the company’s new anthrax vaccine AV7909.
  • EBS has emerged as a major player in the COVID 19 vaccine space. The company was awarded a $628 million task order by HHS for production of COVID-19 vaccine candidates through 2021 as part of Operation Warp Speed. EBS signed a 5-year manufacturing contract with JNJ beginning in 2021 and valued at $480 million for the first two years and a 3-year contract with AZN valued at $174 million through 2021. These follow initial agreements with JNJ and AZN valued at $135 million and $87 million, respectively, for CDMO services and to reserve manufacturing capacity.
  • Other big contract awards include $34.6 million from the Defense Department to advance the company’s COVID-HIG therapeutic candidate, a contract option valued at $258 million for deliveries of anthrax vaccine to the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) over 12 months, $176 million for deliveries of smallpox vaccine over 12 months to SNS and $54 million for deliveries of VGIV, which treats complications from smallpox vaccination, to SNS over 12 months.

 

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NV5 Global, Inc. (NVEE)

$58.00 Price Target, Buy, Current Price: $50.57 (9/8/20)

 

NV5 Global, Inc. is a provider of professional and technical engineering and consulting solutions in the infrastructure, energy, construction, real estate, and environmental markets. The Company’s clients include U.S. federal, state, local governments, and the private sector.

 

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Q1:20 Highlights

  • Q1:20 revenues increased 41% YOY to $165.4 million, fueled by organic growth and contributions from acquisitions. The Company exited the quarter with backlog up 30% YOY to $574 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA improved 58% YOY to $24.1 million, while EBITDA margin increased 170 bps to 18.6% in Q1:20 versus Q1:19.
  • Adjusted EPS was up 10.2% YOY to $0.84 per diluted share.
  • NVEE achieved contract wins across all business segments and ended the quarter with backlog up 30% YOY to $574 million.
  • Although NVEE’s businesses are considered essential, the Company warns there could be COVID-19 related funding delays and project cancellations. Accordingly, NVEE withdrew its previously issued 2020 guidance.

 

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Good Natured Products (GDNP.V)

$0.27 Price Target, Buy, Current Price: $0.14 (9/8/20)

 

Good Natured Products Inc., formerly Solegear, is an award-winning, publicly traded bioplastics company founded in 2006 and based in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Good Natured is an innovator in the field of next generation bioplastics made from annually renewable plant-based sources.

 

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2019 Highlights

  • GDNP grew sales 98% to $10.1 million via a mix of new products, improved cross-selling and customer acquisitions.
  • GDNP signed a one-year agreement to supply earth-friendly packaging to SmartPac and launched a new line of biodegradable containers and utensils for food service and restaurant carryout service.
  • Gross margins rose to 34.4% in FY:19 from 33.9% in FY:18 due to improved overhead absorption and a better product and customer mix.
  • SG&A as a percent of sales declined to 46% from 66% one year earlier. EBITDA loss narrowed to $1.44 million from $1.87 million, a 23% YOY improvement.We wish to thank our clients for their support and belief in our process.  To learn more about Singular Research and register for a 14-day trial offer, please follow the link below.

 

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To learn more about our “Compelling Values” webinar on October 1, please follow the link below. Although this is a private client webinar, we do have capacity for select institutional investors with the committed interest in small caps.

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3075103535189803790

For a complimentary research report on any of these companies mentioned, please e-mail This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or call 818-222-6234. Thank you.

The $13 Billion Market Opportunity in ESPORTS and emerging Leaders | Singular Research

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(The 30,000-square-foot HyperX Esports Arena opened inside the Luxor hotel and casino in 2018.)

 

Video gamers have come a long way from their elementary days of Pong, Pac-Man and Donkey Kong.

Technologically absorbed millennials have taken today’s games to another level, engaging in esports tournaments with substantial monetary rewards and driving a global video gaming market projected to surpass $138 billion by 2021.

Grant Johnson, chief executive officer of Esports Entertainment Group (NASDAQ: GMBL), based in Malta, orchestrated strategic acquisitions to position his company for a share of the estimated $13 billion in global wagering on electronic gaming, or eGaming.

Using a licensed and secure wagering system, Esports Entertainment offers fans the ability to bet real money on professional esports events, but the company has yet to enter the U.S. market due to the regulatory process.

That could change following a partnership formed in August with Twin River Worldwide Holdings. Esports Entertainment hopes to launch online sports betting in New Jersey in first quarter 2021, pending Twin River’s necessary regulatory approval to acquire Bally’s Atlantic City hotel and casino.

The partnership delivers on Esports’ goal of expanding U.S. operations when the company completed its IPO on Nasdaq earlier this year, Johnson said. The company also acquired a skill-based European esports tournament platform that it hopes to bring to the United States, though each state has its own regulations.

With demand for eGaming entertainment increasing during the COVID-19 pandemic, Esports Entertainment completed the acquisition of AHG Entertainment Associates in July. The company paid $1.25 million in cash to AHG, a Florida limited liability company, and issued warrants to AHG to purchase up to 1 million shares of common stock of Esports at $8 a share.

War game generals

Not to be confused with fantasy sports, eGaming is evolving into a lucrative industry with intense competition among dynamic, young players who shed the couch-potato stereotype holed up at home with a game console.

There’s a highly skilled subset of players who excel at war games such as Call of Duty, League of Legends, Valorant, Dota 2 and Counter Strike: Global Offensive. Some compete as teams; individually, Dota 2 professional Johan Sundstein (gamer name NOtail) has won nearly $7 million in tournament play at age 26.

Recognizing that young adults favor video games over slot machines and table games, MGM Resorts opened the 30,000-square-foot HyperX Esports Arena at Luxor Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas in 2018. MGM partnered with Allied Esports, which specializes in esports event production and facility management.

The multi-level venue features a state-of-the-art gaming and broadcast center, competition stage and 50-foot LED video wall. It targets gaming enthusiasts with weekly tournaments, esports exhibition show matches, VIP events and a vintage video game cocktail lounge.

Esports Entertainment Group signed a sponsorship with Allied Esports in July for the inaugural VIE.gg Counter Strike: Global Offensive Legend Series tournament that began Aug. 31 at HyperX Esports Studio in Hamburg, Germany.

“We’re excited to partner with an industry leader, Allied Esports, as the title sponsor of their newest esports tournament,” Esports Entertainment CEO Johnson said in a company statement.

Increased footprint

With AHG, Esports also acquired LHE Enterprises, holding company of online sportsbook and casino operator Argyll Entertainment AG, based in the United Kingdom, and its operating subsidiaries. Those holdings include SportNation.bet, a major contributor to Argyll’s $12 million revenue in 2019.

“They were an example of our aggressive M&A strategy and provided us with $12 million in 2019 revenue and U.K. and Ireland licenses,” said Jeff Cohen, vice president of strategy and investor relations at Esports. “Argyll is part of our three-pillar strategy.”

The first pillar is Esports Entertainment’s gaming tournament platform; the second is Esports’ VIE.gg gambling platform; and the third is traditional internet gaming and sports betting through Argyll, Cohen explained.

Esports competes against established online sports betting platforms such as Draft Kings and Fan Duel, along with apps specific to esports such as Rivalry, Luck Box, Lootbet and Unikrn, for the estimated $13 billion global handle, or total amount wagered, according to Narus Advisors.

“We don’t have specific targets in terms of market share, but we intend to build a best-in-class platform that should attract a significant number of the 500 million-plus esports fans globally,” Cohen said.

Draft Kings soars

During the lockdown on professional sports that impacted sports gaming, Draft Kings (DKNG) benefitted significantly from the iGaming trend, posting revenues for the quarter ended in June that beat expectations by 22%.

As management stated in its Q2 earnings call: “In addition, our iGaming product offering was especially resilient in the second quarter, as it was not impacted by the sports calendar and perhaps even benefited from people staying at home.

“As you might expect given the COVID pandemic, our B2C monthly unique payers in the quarter declined 35% year-over-year to 295,000. More than 100% of the decline was from our daily fantasy sports MUPs, which is both our largest source of monthly unique payers and the product offering that has been most impacted by the disruption in the sports calendar.

“MUPs improved in late May and June as some sports resumed their schedules. On the other hand, ARPMUP increased 51% in Q2 to $63 from $42 in the same period in 2019, which was predominantly driven by a mix shift into our iGaming product offering.”

 Other industry competitors include:

William Hill PLC (WIMHY.PK) is well positioned as a global powerhouse in betting and gaming online and retail. William Hill’s growth has suffered from betting caps in the U.K. and is motivated to seek new avenues of growth.  The company operates through three business divisions: online, retail and William Hill US.  William Hill currently derives over 50% of gross revenues from “non- real world” sports gaming such as football, basketball, soccer, etc.

And privately held:

Unikrn Inc., headquartered in Redmond, Wash., is an esports betting company and software publisher founded in 2014. Betting options include sports, video games and raffles.

Bet365 Group Ltd., headquartered in United Kingdom, is a provider of gambling services. The company’s key areas of interest are sports betting, soccer highlights, casinos, poker games and bingo. The company was founded in 2001.

Betway Ltd., headquartered in Gzira, Malta, is engaged in the spectator sports sector. The company was founded in 2006. Betway Group Ltd. is its ultimate parent.

 

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gaming index aug 2020

 

Singular Research Director’s Letter: August performance 2020

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Singular Research Director’s Letter: August performance 2020

 

In August, there have been signs of hope in slowing cases and decreasing deaths in the Corona virus pandemic fight.  Specifically, in the U.S., New York city saw infection rates below one percent for three consecutive weeks, and California, the state with the most Corona virus cases, saw its seven day moving average for new cases per day reduce from 7,800 on August 1 to 5,200 by August 31.  However, as schools re-open, there has been considerable debate as to the most safe and effective way possible.  Interestingly, on August 15, Russia came out with a vaccine; however, the safety and effectiveness of this vaccine is not well understood.  

The story in the stock market was mega cap technology momentum.  The top five companies by market cap in the S&P 500 are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Google.  These five companies alone make up roughly one quarter of the index.  So, when these companies have favorable momentum to the upside, the index will also have an upward skew.  Investors continued to buy regardless of any factual news; a good example of this behavior was on August 31 when Apple’s shares traded post-split.  The shares were up 3% at the start of the day simply because the share price was cheaper.  This momentum buying suggests an overextended market with the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio at 21.9, above the historical average of 19.4.

The August Purchasing Managers Index® (PMI) rebounded to expansion territory, registering 56.0 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the July reading of 54.2 percent.  Similarly, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) increased 1.4 percent in July to 104.4 (2016 = 100), following a 3.0 percent increase in June and a 3.1 percent increase in May.  Both the PMI and LEI gained strength from July and investors saw optimism in the results.  The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July (11.1% in June) as businesses have started the rehiring process.  The August unemployment rate was not available at the time of this writing.

singular monthly performance aug 2020

For the month of August, the Singular coverage list underperformed the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 by 733 and 582 basis points, respectively.  Year-to-date, the Singular coverage list has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 by 1,984 and 543 basis points, respectively.  Throughout Singular’s sixteen-year performance track record, there have been many periods of over and underperformance relative to the S&P 500 and Russell 2000.  We want to emphasize that the month of August was an impressive month for the Dow and the S&P 500, both posting their best August returns in 36 years as investors were most likely encouraged by slowing Corona virus cases and vaccine progression.  We do not want this month to blur Singular’s since inception performance which has outperformed the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 by an annualized 195 and 254 basis points, respectively. 

top 5 performers aug 2020

For August, MGNI had a strong month as the company had its first quarter of combined financials from RUBI’s merger with TLRA.  MGNI reassured investors that the new company’s growth plans were not over-exaggerated as management saw MGNI’s CTV business grow 50% YoY.  Similarly, SAMG had a strong month as earnings and assets under management continued to grow even during tough conditions.  LUNA also reported a strong quarter and reaffirmed year-end guidance.  Finally, QNST posted better-than-expected earnings results and is narrowing their focus on more profitable business segments; QNST divested its mortgage and education client verticals.

worst 5 performers aug 2020

VIVO was our worst performer for the month even though the company reported record earnings results; on VIVO’s earnings call, management pointed to lower demand in the fourth quarter as supply chain issues led companies to secure more inventory in the third quarter.  SALM was another weak performer as the company had weak quarterly earnings with revenue and EBITDA decreasing 18 and 72% YoY, respectively.  ZM, a short position, posted a record quarter with revenue up 355% YoY. 

For August, we did not have any new initiations.

We wish to thank our clients for their support and belief in our process.  To learn more about Singular Research and register for a 14-day trial offer, please follow the link below.  

14-Day Trial Offer

On Thursday, September 17, we are hosting our “Compelling Values” webinar, showcasing top ranked emerging growth, undervalued, and undercovered companies that exemplify our research and provide exciting alpha opportunities at a time when small and micro-cap stocks are most justified for favorable returns.  To learn more about our webinar, please follow the link below.

Compelling Values Webinar

 

Thank You

Robert Maltbie, CFA
Singular Research, President
818-222-6234(office)
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

Why Gold Now? A Private Client Call with Buy Rated - Seabrige Gold (SA) CEO Rudi Fronk

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Join us for a webinar on Aug 17, 2020 at 9:00 AM PDT.

 

Register Now!

 

Why Gold Now? A Private Client Call with Buy Rated - Seabrige Gold (SA) CEO Rudi Fronk.

The toxic combination of expansionary monetary policy by central banks and large fiscal stimulus by global governments due to the COVID-19 pandemic has lead to a new all-time high in gold prices this year and a weaker dollar. Seabridge Gold's resource base of gold, copper, and silver is one of the world's largest and is highly leveraged to the price of gold.

Please join us for industry insights and outlook for Seabridge Gold with an industry maverick.

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

Singular Research Director’s Letter: July performance 2020

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Singular Research Director’s Letter: July performance 2020

 

In July, the Corona virus continued its rampant spread in the areas and states that tried to reopen too early. Specifically, in California, Florida, and Texas, new cases per day surged recklessly out of control as governors and mayors who once had grand reopening plans had to curtail those ideas. On July 10, the United States reported 63,247 new cases, the country’s largest one day advance during the pandemic. Soon after on July 12, Florida reported 15,300 new cases, the largest one-day increase for any state. With testing averaging more than 600,000 new tests per day and with more testing performed on those younger than fifty, positivity rates have increased, but mortality rates have declined, suggesting a new chapter in the Corona virus pandemic; however, it appears the media continues to fuel widespread fear by failing to recognize the lower mortality rates in the younger age groups.

By the end of July, there were positive results for Covid vaccines that have encouraged many investors to look to a brighter day when we can all have a facemask free lifestyle. However, the path towards that day will not be trouble-free as millions of Americans are still out of work with the $600 dollar per week unemployment additional benefit expiring at the end of the month. Globally, the United States, Brazil, and India are the top three countries for new Corona virus cases and growth of these new cases does not appear to be slowing any time soon.

The July Purchasing Managers Index® (PMI) rebounded to expansion territory, registering 54.2 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the June reading of 52.6 percent. Similarly, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) increased 2.0 percent in June to 102.0 (2016 = 100), following a 3.2 percent decrease in May and a 6.3 percent decline in April. Both the PMI and LEI gained strength from June and investors saw optimism in the results. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% (11.1% in June) as businesses have started the rehiring process.

singular montly performance july 2020

 

For the month of July, the Singular coverage list underperformed the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 by 286 and 11 basis points, respectively. Year-to-date, the Singular coverage list has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 by 1,245 and 23 basis points, respectively. Over the last twelve months, the Singular coverage list has underperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed the Russell 2000 by 1,325 and 211 basis points, respectively. As new Corona virus cases grew both domestically and globally and as several vaccine candidates showed promising signs, investors were overall enthusiastic that an end to the pandemic was on the horizon, but still favored companies that would not be as affected from future Corona virus turmoil.

july 2020 top 5 performers

 

For July, SALM had a great month as one of Salem’s Radio Hosts, Dr. Sebastian Gorka, was appointed to the National Security Education Board. SALM also had one of its talk show hosts, Larry Elder, be nominated for induction into the Radio Hall of Fame. Similarly, ROKU had a strong month as the Peloton app launched on their platform. ROKU also released a study that found one in three households now have cut the cord. Finally, AMRK had another great month as the price of gold is at alltime highs and continues to increase because of inflationary fears.

july 2020 top 5 worst performers

EHTH was our worst performer for the month as the company reported strong earnings, but a higher Medicare Advantage plan churn rate than compared to historical observations. ZEUS trended lower as fears of an economic slowdown and lower prices of steel hurt investor sentiment. MGNI had a negative month as the company is in the early stages of a large merger, thus creating some unknown for investors.

For July, we initiated coverage on Silvercrest Asset Management Group (SAMG). SAMG is a fullservice wealth management firm focused on providing financial advisory and related family office services to ultra-high net worth individuals and institutional investors.

july 2020 new initiation

We wish to thank our clients for their support and belief in our process.  To learn more about Singular Research and register for a 14-day trial offer, please follow the link below.  

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Thank You

Robert Maltbie, CFA
Singular Research, President
818-222-6234(office)
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

Sports Betting Future

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US Sports Gaming Industry Ready To Roll. Century Casinos, Inc (CNTY) & Draft Kings Inc (DKNG) Well Positioned For Growth

 

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The 44-story Circa Las Vegas hotel and casino, scheduled to open in October, overlooks the Golden Gate casino.

 

“Play ball!”

Sports bettors and fans across America have been anxiously waiting four months to hear those two hallowed words.

So has Derek Stevens, chief executive officer of Las Vegas-based Circa Sports, who plans to open the $1 billion, 777-room Circa Las Vegas hotel and casino in October, featuring a three-story, state-of-the-art sports book.

It’ll be the best “seat-for-seat, pixel-for-pixel” sports book not only in Las Vegas, rivaling Westgate and Caesars Palace, but best in the world, Stevens confidently asserts during a recent interview at The D, his namesake hotel and casino formerly known as Fitzgerald’s.

Stevens has no fear of losing revenue to online sports betting, which is legal in 18 states following the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2018 decision to overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), with legislation pending in eight other states.

 

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Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens

 

It shows America’s growing acceptance of sports gambling. Stevens jumped on the train in February when Circa Sports partnered with Century Casinos to launch a mobile sports betting app in Colorado.

Century Casinos Inc. (CNTY) is rated strong buy by one broker and buy by four brokers, with an average price target of $7.75. If this proves correct, Century stock provides upside potential of over 88% from Friday's close of $4.12. On comparative valuation metrics, CNTY trades at a significant discount to its casino industry competitors, trading at 25% discount to book value and 67% discount to the group. On a prices/sales basis, CNTY trades at approximate 60% discount. To shore up its balance sheet and secure growth capital, the company files a $100 million shelf offering.

“Before the Supreme Court ruling, I was asked about other states,” says Stevens, the Detroit native who unabashedly gambles on sports himself. “Will it hurt Las Vegas or not? I’ve always said it’ll be good for Las Vegas. It just grows the size of the pie.”

People who bet sports in their home state are going to eventually come to Las Vegas, he believes. “For all reasons, Vegas is Vegas, and the sports book is part of it,” he says.

 

Football fever

While many states saw growth in sports betting revenue before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the economy, including live sporting events, the handle – or amount wagered – dropped off a cliff when bettors were limited to obscure sports such as Ukrainian table tennis, German soccer and a few UFC fights.

Along with MLB starting its 60-game season on July 23, the NBA, WNBA and NHL are resuming play in “bubble” environments, and the NFL is set to play in September, though fan attendance remains a question. College football is also in limbo.
Even with no fans or limited attendance, the popularity of the NFL and other pro sports will boost betting, says Michael Gaughan, owner of South Point hotel and casino in Las Vegas.

“Remember, football is still No. 1 in sports handle,” Gaughan notes.

“The main unknown is how many games will be played. California has banned all football in the state. The Rams and the Chargers will play in Las Vegas and Phoenix and the 49ers will (play) in Seattle. Also, the players union is another wild card.”

If all the games are played, it will be a “banner year for sports,” the longtime Las Vegas gaming executive believes. Everything changes if the season is curtailed due to different state regulations or player union demands.

 

Favorable laws

California ran into tribal opposition that killed sports betting legislation in June, but eight other jurisdictions are in the process of legalizing sports betting, including North Carolina, which is tribal; Tennessee and Washington, D.C., which have regulations in place; Washington, Virginia and Puerto Rico, which are currently in the regulatory phase; and South Dakota and Maryland, where sports betting will be on the ballot in November.

Circa CEO Stevens would consider expanding his sports betting app into other markets, but only if the regulatory environment is favorable. Some states such as Illinois and Montana have introduced sports betting legislation in a manner that is “not as inviting” as others, he says.

Illinois, for example, sets a money line of minus-125 each way, meaning bettors must wager $1.25 to win $1.00 no matter which side they bet, whereas Las Vegas is minus-110, sometimes minus-105 in promotions.

“Look at New Jersey, all the markets have been blown away. We expect the same thing in Colorado,” Stevens says.

California took a step back, but most gaming analysts and operators still see a wide-open window of opportunity following the PASPA ruling.

South Point’s Gaughan offers no opinion on California, potentially the richest pot for sports betting with a projected $1.5 billion in total revenue generated and $195 million in taxes. Officials there have been talking about it for three years.

One company that felt the brunt of the California delay was Draft Kings (DKNG). The stock was trading in the low $40s prior to the announcement and sold off sharply to a low of $29.50 in the wake of the legislative delay. Still, with the re-opening of most major sports around the world, Wall Street analysts are forecasting strong growth ahead, seeing revenues doubling over the next 2 ½ years, increasing from $497 million to over $1 billion by year end 2022. This possibility is not lost to investors with DKNG sporting a market cap nearly double the value of MGM Resorts (MGM) and Wynn International (WYNN). Twelve analysts cover the stock, with four strong buys, six buys and two hold ratings. The “street” estimates a price target of $47 for DKNG providing over 25% upside potential. The company recently secured financing its growth plans with a $1.6 billion equity sale with approximately $600 million representing new equity issuance.

Other issues with legalized sports betting must be resolved.

“As of this moment in Congress, there are people trying to outlaw betting on collegiate sports,” Gaughan says. “Between different states with different regulations and different taxes, and some of the leagues wanting a piece of the action and some of the states wanting to give it to them, I see nothing happening soon.

“Always remember, sports betting is not a lottery. It is a very low marginal business. You have to win the money. There are no guarantees. Most states don’t understand this,” he says.

 

Singular Research Sports Gaming Index

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Initial Estimates on Covid Vaccine Leaders

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Initial Estimates on Covid Vaccine Leaders

July 28, 2020

 

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Assumptions

  • The total addressable market for the Covid vaccine is $280 billion.
    • 7 billion people x $20 a shot x 2 shots
  • 50% of the Covid vaccine revenue from the company’s corresponding market share is added to the company’s top line.
  • We are assuming each company’s percentage share weight of the Covid vaccine.

 

To learn more about Singular Research and sign up for a 14-day complimentary trial offer, please follow the link below. Thanks!

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Major Market Indicators (MMI) Report July 2020

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July 2020 MMI Report

 

The Big Mo.

While most of our near-term valuation indicators confirm a fairly valued market, technical and sentiment indicators and continued aggressive stimulus from the Fed keep the market in a bullish mode.


Market Sentiment: Bullish


The VIX and VXN registered in the mid 20s to low 30s, showing slightly elevated volatility.  At 1.43-to-1, the put/call ratio on the S&P 500 is elevated.  The bull to bear ratio scores in at 0.68 and finally, the short interest on the Nasdaq is 3.65 days to cover which is also elevated.

Exhibit 1: VIX 1-Year Chart

 

 

Technical Indicators: Bullish

The market shows a healthy expansion, thus becoming more inclusive.  New highs to new lows register firmly in the bullish camp at 147 to 9.  Last week, the NASDAQ advance/declined volume ratio registered 2,258 up to 1,454 down.  The 10-day moving average on up/down volume on the NYSE is mildly positive at 1.2 times while on the NASDAQ, the ratio is much stronger at 1.5 times.  Confirming the expansion and showing a broadening of the bull market are five of the six major market indices that are now above their 200-day moving average.  The sole laggard is the equal weighted small cap index.

Exhibit 2: SPY 1-Year & 200 Day Simple Moving Average

exhibit 2 spy 1 year 200

 

Liquidity Indicators:  Neutral

Powered by two large M&A deals, the Eldorado/Caesars merger and the Chevron takeover of Noble, net inflows ran to a barely positive $1.5 billion.  Surprisingly, net outflows from equities were over $20 billion and inflows into bond funds were over $25 billion.  Meanwhile, underscoring the heightened aversion to risk, over $4.5 trillion is parked in money market funds, an outsized 13.8% allocation relative to the total market capitalization of current equities.  This sidelined cash provides ample fuel to power equity prices higher.

 

EPS Momentum:  Neutral

The chopping block for EPS estimates seems to have reached a trough in Q2.  Full year earnings estimates have been reduced by over 25% to $123 for 2020.  The S&P PEG ratio scores a 19.96 reading, significantly over the 2.58 reading necessary for a bullish score.  EPS is projected to grow over 26% next year.

 

Valuation: Neutral

 The market to replacement cost indicator shows the market is priced at a 20% premium to replacement cost.  For this indicator to be bullish, we would need there to be a discount.  Currently, total market cap exceeds GDP by 1.53 times.  This indicator points to a fully priced market at these levels.  However, the EPS yield exceeds the quality corporate bond yield by 78 basis points which is encouraging on a relative basis.  Our S&P 500 target based on earnings projections and multipliers, projects an S&P 500 fair value of 3,071, (5)% below the close on July 21.

 

Monetary Indicators:  Bullish

As a result of the historical and aggressive maneuvers by the Fed both in fiscal and monetary actions, our excess liquidity indicator registers a positive 448 basis points.  With another round of stimulus being negotiated, liquidity looks to be more than sufficient, thus the adage “do not fight the Fed” appears to be true at this time.  Term spread is a positive 48 basis points, showing a bullish upward tilt to the term spread yield curve.  High yield bond rates are providing a 512 basis point premium to 10 year Treasuries, a very bullish sign and further showing a modest value available in high yield bonds.

Exhibit 3: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Over 1 Year

exhibit 3 us 10 year

 

In summary, our indicators show a virtual stalemate with the caveat being the extreme stimulus from the Fed, giving the nod to the bulls.  In the area of irrelevant annoying information, Jeff Bezos made $13 billion in the market on July 20.

july 2020

 

By the way, here are some market election year statistics.  Since 1988, the S&P 500 average annual return has been 4.9%.  Excluding 2008, the average annual return has been 10.9%.  Six of the eight election years have posted positive returns.


Case A = S&P 500 at 3,375
Case B = S&P 500 at 3,568

 

Robert Maltbie, CFA

Founder and President of Singular Research
818-222-6234(office)
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