Los Angeles, CA Jan 12 2015 – Robert Maltbie Jr, President of Singular Research announced the release of Singular’s Top Picks for 2015, “Each year we canvass our analysts for their top picks as means of continuing to add value for our clients.  Over our 10 history Singular Research has demonstrated an extensive track record adding alpha by finding quality investment ideas that have been overlooked by Wall Street.  Our ‘Best Ideas’ list seeks to capture that best of the best”.

This year’s Best Of list includes eight companies from an array of different industries, reaching from integrated circuits to shipping to insurance.   We are currently working with these companies to arrange our non-deal road show calendar for the coming months, which will enable clients an opportunity to meet the management of these companies in a 1×1 setting.

Our Best Ideas for 2015 list includes the following companies: Core Molding Technologies (CMT – Price Target $17), Atlas Financial Holdings (AFH – Price Target $19), Sparton Corporation (SPA – Price Target $36), Global Ship Lease (GSL – Price Target $6.30), Female Health Company (FHCO – Price Target $7.50), Nova Measurement Instruments (NVMI – Price Target $14), JMP Securities (JMP – Price Target $11), and Vertex Energy (VTNR – Price Target $15).

For a current complimentary copy of our Best Ideas for 2015 report please contact:

Tom Kill
VP Institutional Sales
Singular Research

Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Phone # 626-405-0242

 

Robert Maltbie Jr. of Singular Research at NYC Small Cap Conference

S&P 500 Finishes Near an All-time High

After what seemed to be a year ripe with plenty of volatility the large cap segment of the market finished just off its all-time high (using the S&P 500 as our proxy). Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, trailed larger caps by over 600 basis points. However, looking ahead to 2015 we feel this dynamic may be poised to change for a variety of factors. One we cite in particular is that small caps, on a relative basis, have less exposure to softening foreign demand and currency headwinds. If the US economy continues to expand then we see small caps having the runway to advance and outpace large caps this ear.

We return to highlighting our MMI indicator which, as shown in the chart below, displays strong correlation with the Russell 2000. As a reminder, an index score for our MMI indicator of 60 or higher is considered bullish; 50 to 60 is neutral; and under 50 is bearish. In the chart below we plot our weekly MMI readings since early May 2014 versus the level of the Russell 2000 index. After falling through September, our indicator bottomed early in October before rallying, finishing the year in the bullish zone, adding further conviction to our stance on small caps for 2015.

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For December, the S&P 500 was down 0.44%, the Russell 2000 was up 2.68% and the aggregate Singular List was up 2.94%. For the trailing twelve months, which also marks the full year 2014, the S&P was up 12.5%, the Russell 2000 was up 5.0%, and the Singular Research List was down 1.7%.

With December typically a light month in terms of corporate news, our top five performers saw a variety of catalysts for their respective moves higher. As our table shows, the top performing company on the Singular List was Trecora (TREC). We, along with many investors, had been awaiting the filing of pro forma figures related to the company’s acquisition of SSI Chusei. With those figures finally published investors pushed shares higher as they gained more comfort in their forward projections.

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As with our top performers, our worst performers in December were also from a variety of industries and with a range of reasons for the declines. The rout in Oil continued with Natural Gas prices also sagging significantly during the month, with softening global demand pegged as a catalyst. Reading through this, investors also sold off other commodity names, negatively impacting LODE on our list.

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At Singular Research we continue to seek out investment ideas that have minimal to no Wall Street coverage. There are a number of uncovered and under-covered names we continue to track with an eye on helping our clients gain an edge. We thank our clients for your support of independent equity research.

Sincerely,
Jeremy Hellman, CFA
Director of Research/Chief Operating Office

Oil Slide Dominates Headlines

Exiting the month of November it certainly seemed as though all attention was focused on the price of oil as its slide continued with OPEC opting to make no cuts to its production plans.  For many sectors this represents a positive as consumers can expect to have a little more money in their pockets for holiday shopping, thanks to lower gas prices.  Other industries, such as airlines, also stand to benefit although lower fuel prices have yet to show up in the form of lower ticket prices.

At Singular we’d also like to thank everyone who attended our NYC Summit on November 20th and also congratulate everyone on the team for all their hard work in hosting the event.  We had quite a number of quality companies present, offering conference attendees an opportunity for value-added one on one meetings as well.

We return to highlighting our MMI indicator which, as shown in the chart below, displays strong correlation with the Russell 2000.  As a reminder, an index score for our MMI indicator of 60 or higher is considered bullish; 50 to 60 is neutral; and under 50 is bearish.  In the chart below we plot our weekly MMI readings since early May versus the level of the Russell 2000 index.  After falling through September, our indicator bottomed early in October before rallying into neutral territory where it has remained since.

For November, the bifurcation between large and small caps continued as the S&P 500 was up 2.2%, the Russell 2000 was down 0.03% and the aggregate Singular List was down 6.2%.  For the trailing twelve months, the S&P was up 15.8%, the Russell 2000 was up 6.2%, and the Singular Research List was down 2.4%.  Year to date the S&P 500 is up 11.5 %; the Russell 2000 is up 0.9% and the Singular list is down 6.8%.

Our top five performers in November represented a variety of industries, from gold to technology. As our table shows, the top performing company on the Singular List was Seabridge Gold (SA).  After seeing the company at our recent NYC Summit we are all the more convinced that management has the right plan in place to build shareholder value as the company continues to further its resource development efforts.

As with our top performers, our worst performers in November were also from a variety of industries and with a range of reasons for the declines.  As is often the case with development-stage biotechs, investment success is a binary outcome which aligns with success (or lack thereof) with the company’s clinical trials.  This was the case with NYMX as negative trial news drove shares down sharply and led us to discontinue coverage.

At Singular Research we continue to seek out investment ideas that have minimal to no Wall Street coverage.  There are a number of uncovered and under-covered names we continue to track with an eye on helping our clients gain an edge.  We thank our clients for your support of independent equity research.

Sincerely,

Jeremy Hellman, CFA
Director of Research/Chief Operating Officer

Impressive Bounce Follows Early Drop

October certainly featured its share of volatility with the Russell 200 index falling as much as 6% early in the month before rallying sharply to close with a gain of over 6%. The early drop appeared driven by the combination of weak foreign economic data, Ebola fears, and collapsing oil prices. As the Ebola scare receded and oil prices found equilibrium in the low $80s, the market bounced, led by positive US economic data.

We return to highlighting our MMI indicator which, as shown in the chart below, displays strong correlation with the Russell 2000. As a reminder, an index score for our MMI indicator of 60 or higher is considered bullish; 50 to 60 is neutral; and under 50 is bearish. In the chart below we plot our weekly MMI readings since early May versus the level of the Russell 2000 index. After falling through September, our indicator bottomed early in October before rallying into neutral territory as of our last reading on October 27.

For October, the S&P 500 was up 2.4%, the Russell 2000 was up 6.4% and the aggregate Singular List was up 3.0%. For the trailing twelve months, the S&P was up 18.0%, the Russell 2000 was up 8.5%, and the Singular Research List was up 7.8%. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 8.8%; the Russell 2000 is up 0.9% and the Singular list is down 1.7%.

We had two new initiations in September – both BUY rated. We initiated coverage of media company Crown Media Holdings (CRWN) with a $4 price target and energy construction firm Argan, Inc (AGX) with a $41 price target.

Our top five performers in October included four BUY rated companies along with one of our SELL rated companies. As our table shows, the top performing company on the Singular List in June was REED. Although the company had no material news during the month, the market continued its positive reaction to the company’s last round of earnings and guidance. Our analyst has had the view for some time that REED offers compelling upside potential if/when certain pieces of the puzzle are put into place and that appears to be unfolding.

As with our top performers, our worst performers in October were also from a variety of industries and with a range of reasons for the declines. A common theme seen in several of the companies noted below is exposure to the energy industry. As oil prices fell precipitously shares of most companies in the sector suffered accordingly. In the case of companies on our list such as VTNR, we see the short term reaction as providing a great entry point for long-term oriented investors.

At Singular Research we continue to seek out investment ideas that have minimal to no Wall Street coverage. There are a number of uncovered and under-covered names we continue to track with an eye on helping our clients gain an edge. We thank our clients for your support of independent equity research.

Sincerely,
Jeremy Hellman, CFA
Director of Research/Chief Operating Officer

Sparton Corporation (SPA) today announced that it will make the audio portion of its upcoming Investor Day presentation available via webcast. Listeners may access the live audio portion of the presentation and view the slides beginning at 11 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, October 8^th by visiting the Upcoming Events & Presentations section of the Company’s investor relations page at www.sparton.com.

A replay of the audio will be available shortly after the completion of the event.

Market Indicator Report Presages Small Cap Fade

Singular subscribers will be familiar with our recently-introduced weekly publication called the “Market Indicators and Strategy report”. In this report we distill a plethora of factors, such as liquidity, sentiment, technical, earnings momentum, and valuation, into a quantitative score that guides us to a bullish, bearish, or neutral market stance. We track and post this score on a weekly basis and hope our clients are finding it to be a useful tool in portfolio positioning.

As a reminder, an index score for our MMI indicator of 60 or higher is considered bullish; 50 to 60 is neutral; and under 50 is bearish. In the chart below we plot our weekly MMI readings since early May versus the level of the Russell 2000 index. Notably, our MMI readings dropped off considerably in early September, falling from a level well into the bullish zone all the way into the bearish camp. The Russell 2000 trended down throughout the month of September, lending further support to the utility of our weekly report.

For September, the S&P 500 was down 1.6%, the Russell 2000 was down 6.1% and the aggregate Singular List was down 4.9%. For the trailing twelve months, the S&P was up 18.6%, the Russell 2000 was up 8.4%, and the Singular Research List was up 9.4%. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 6.4%; the Russell 2000 is down 5.2% and the Singular list is down 4.6%.

We had two new initiations in September – both BUY rated. We initiated coverage of RFID technology provider Checkpoint Systems (CKP) with a $18 price target and advisory/consulting firm Edgewater Technology (EDGW) with an $9 price target.

Despite the difficult month for small caps, our top five performers in September included three BUY rated companies along with two of our SELL rated companies. As our table shows, the top performing company on the Singular List in June was AVNW. The company reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended June 27th along with full year results in early September. A key highlight which was well-received by the market was the reintroduction of forward guidance, signaling that management has an increased level of confidence going forward.

As with our top performers, our worst performers in September were also from a variety of industries and with a range of reasons for the declines. Our top 3 decliners all feature exposure to commodities, with SA and LODE focused on precious metals and VTNR focused on hydrocarbons. As commodities suffered in September, shares of these stocks followed suit but we see no change to our thesis on any of them.

At Singular Research we continue to seek out investment ideas that have minimal to no Wall Street coverage. There are a number of uncovered and under-covered names we continue to track with an eye on helping our clients gain an edge. We thank our clients for your support of independent equity research.

Sincerely,
Jeremy Hellman, CFA
Chief Operating Officer

The Russell 2000 index gave up June’s gains and then some, sliding 6.01% for the month and 2.3% on the last day alone. With the close of July we are midway through earnings season, with many larger companies having already reported while smaller companies have yet to do so. Where companies have posted strong results, especially with upward guidance, shares have bucked the downward trend in the market. Those with less-rosy outlooks have not fared so well.

The headline print for advanced Q2 GDP of 4% gave the market an initial round of optimism as those blaming poor weather for Q1 weakness appeared proven correct. However, in parsing the details the Q2 report also showed a rise in inventories. The bear camp latched on to this item as a cause for Q3 pessimism, while bulls might point to a restocking following Q1. On the heels of the GDP report, July 31 saw a Chicago PMI reading of 52.6 versus an expected range of 61 to 65, likely fueling the significant drop in the market. Noted in the report was some weakness due to geopolitical concerns, pointing to continued issues in Gaza and Ukraine as beginning to have some impact globally.

For July, the S&P 500 was down 1.51%, the Russell 2000 was down 6.01% and the aggregate Singular List was down 3.91%. For the trailing twelve months, the S&P was up 18.2%, the Russell 2000 was up 13.5%, and the Singular Research List was up 14.1%.

Our top five performers in July include companies from a variety of industries and are all BUY rated ideas, proving that quality stock picking still matters, even in a negative tape. As our table shows, the top performing company on the Singular List in June was REX. We increased our price target on the shares from $75 to $99 during July as we expect the company to report good results for the quarter ended July 31. The two primary cost of goods sold items for REX are corn and natural gas, both of which saw prices slides substantially in recent months. At the same time, ethanol prices have remained relatively stable, implying REX will deliver very healthy gross margins.

As with our top performers, our worst performers in July were also from a variety of industries and with a range of reasons for the declines. Looking at ISSC, for example, the shares slid following earnings as deliveries on the new Delta contract have been pushed out due to a delay at the FAA. The company expects this to be resolved without issue and thus we think this initial reaction constitutes a buying opportunity.

At Singular Research we continue to seek out investment ideas that have minimal to no Wall Street coverage. There are a number of uncovered and under-covered names we have been investigating, and we plan to launch coverage on several names in the coming weeks. We thank our clients for your support of independent equity research.

Sincerely,

Jeremy Hellman, CFA

Chief Operating Officer