Covid outbreak 2nd wave claims by media not supported by balanced data sets
Covid outbreak 2nd wave claims by media not supported by balanced data sets
Media hyping 2nd wave showing increased cases , particularly in states that were first to reopen, TX, FLA , AZ...
Data does not support this , increased cases are largely the result of increased testing, positivity rates are steady at 5-7% .
Texas is a good example of data not supporting the fear mongering . Tests have increased nearly 4x in the last 1-2 months, increasing 20% on a 7 day avg. . Hospital rate data shows plenty of capacity at 30%+ , and a 2-1x ventilator to patient ratio: 5844/2793.
Similar data found in Arizona: testing +2x in last 2 months , positives steady at 7%.
In all these states the daily mortality rate is trending 25-35% downward since peaking approximately 2 months ago. Alabama has been cited as a hotspot, it had only 1 death yesterday.
Data on the US is not fairly discussed, US is the 3rd most populous nation , China at #1 has unreliable data
On a apples to apples basis, US has a lower death rate than many European nations in deaths per 1m population .
The US death rate is 35% lower , adjusted for nursing home deaths in NYC & NJ where infected Covid -19 elderly patients were sent back to nursing homes in error , accelerating deaths.
The US has the highest obesity rate at over 30% , this is among the highest in the world. Obesity is the highest correlated morbidity factor , and the US, adjusted for high obesity and the nursing home error ,has one of the lowest death rates in the western world per 1million , rivaling Germany & Austria.
Recent "outbreaks" in Germany are also not supported by data. China data is unreliable..
Thus, it appears any significant market correction induced by the current Covid-19 outbreak claims should be seen opportunistically.
references:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-per-confirmed-case-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=~USA
Thank You
Robert Maltbie, CFA
Singular Research, President
818-222-6234(office)
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Tags: Director's Letter, Latest Updates
Tags: Latest Updates
